# 1 problem from forecasting- Moving average with seasonality 8 true false question. answers to be worked on an excel sheet with formulas.

1 problem from forecasting- Moving average with seasonality 8 true false question. answers to be worked on an excel sheet with formulas.

1 problem from forecasting- Moving average with seasonality 8 true false question. answers to be worked on an excel sheet with formulas.
Problem -1 For the moving average problem below, determine (in the Excel file): (30 points) The Moving Average Forecasting values MAD and MSE B) (45 points) Determine quarterly seasonal factors and perform all the above steps using the seasonal factors. (hint: to save time, you can copy and paste the entire table into Excel) Year Quarter TRUE               Value Moving Average Value   5,005         n=   4,822               5,700             5,300               5,510               7,300         Mean Absolute Deviation   6,490         MAD =     4,810               5,800         Mean Square Error   6,850         MSE =     6,520               7,050               Problem – 2 (5 points each): The last-value forecasting method is most useful when conditions are stable over time.( T / F ) An exponential smoothing forecasting method with a small value of smoothing constant is very responsive to changes in the time-series data. ( T / F ) The forecasting method which uses grass-roots information to achieve a forecast is:a. sales force composites.b. consumer surveys.c. the Delphi method.d. time-series analysis.e. executive opinions. Given forecast errors of 8, 4, and 9, what is the mean absolute deviation?a. 3.b. 4.c. 7.d. 6.e. 12. Given an actual demand of 60, a previous forecast of 50, and an alpha of 0.7, what would be the forecast for its next period using the exponential smoothing method?a. 57.b. 61.c. 63.d. 65.e. 67. Bonus: (6 points) Please write the answers on a separate tab in same the Excel file. MSE emphasizes smaller values of the errors? ( T / F ) What do we mean by time series? Assuming market conditions are the same, how can the MSE values help you decide which forecasting method is better?

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